48,000 BTU heat pumps
4 ton heat pumps — every certified unit at this capacity, ranked.
Data current as of July 12, 2026 · 715 certified units · source AHRI + ENERGY STAR
The two numbers that decide a heat pump at this size
What it costs to deliver heat. Across these 715 certified units the computed cost runs $15.69 to $26.15 per MMBtu — the least efficient costs 67% more to run than the most, for the same heat. Over a 40 MMBtu heating season — the moderate-climate default our operating-cost calculator uses, and where you can put your own load in — that is $628 against $1,046, a gap of $418 a year.
Whether it still delivers when it is cold. COP at 5°F runs 1.44 to 2.60 here. A COP of 1.0 is a plain electric heater, so a unit near 1.44 has almost stopped being a heat pump on the coldest night — exactly when the bill is largest. 541 of these (76%) carry the cold-climate designation. This is the number to sort on if your winters bite, and it is not the same ranking as HSPF2.
A 4-ton ducted heat pump installs for $11,000 to $20,000, so the premium tier costs about $9,000 more. Against a $418 a year saving that is a 22-year payback — longer than the equipment lasts on energy alone, so justify the upgrade on cold-climate output or comfort rather than on the bill.
$/MMBtu is computed from certified HSPF2 and EIA average electricity prices; the formula is in our methodology. Install ranges are US national typical for a like-for-like ducted swap, compiled 2026-07-16, and exclude ductwork, electrical upgrades and backup heat.
Highest HSPF2 in this group
1HVAC ACIQ-48ZPL-HP230B
HSPF2 12.0 · still delivers 50,000 BTU at 5°F · $15.69 per MMBtu to run.
See installed costs →HSPF2 is the seasonal heating efficiency rating — heat delivered per unit of electricity across a whole season. Higher is cheaper to run.
The 20 highest-HSPF2 of 715 certified units · 6 with a verified place to buy
| Brand & model | HSPF2 | Capacity | Heat at 5°F | $/MMBtu | Buy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1HVAC ACIQ-48ZPL-HP230B | 12.0 | 4 ton | 50,000 BTU | $15.69 | Get quotes | |
| BRYANT HEATING AND COOLING SYSTEMS 291VAN054**AA* | 12.0 | 4 ton | 52,000 BTU | $15.69 | Get quotes | |
| Carrier 27VNA154A*030* | 12.0 | 4 ton | 52,000 BTU | $15.69 | Buy | |
| SLIMAIR SHC48VH2AG | 12.0 | 4 ton | 50,000 BTU | $15.69 | Get quotes | |
| MDV MOE30U-48HFN1-M-[X] | 12.0 | 4 ton | 50,000 BTU | $15.69 | Buy | |
| MDV MOE30U-48HFN1-M-[X](GA) | 12.0 | 4 ton | 50,000 BTU | $15.69 | Buy | |
| MDV MOE30U-48HFN1-M-[X](GA)-L | 12.0 | 4 ton | 50,000 BTU | $15.69 | Buy | |
| Lennox MLB048S4S-1P | 12.0 | 4 ton | 50,000 BTU | $15.69 | Get quotes | |
| Lennox MLB048S4S-2P | 12.0 | 4 ton | 50,000 BTU | $15.69 | Get quotes | |
| Custom Comfort CCOXHASZ48CHP | 12.0 | 4 ton | 50,000 BTU | $15.69 | Get quotes | |
| Mitsubishi Electric MXZ-SM48NLHZ-** | 11.5 | 4 ton | 54,000 BTU | $16.37 | Get quotes | |
| Mitsubishi Electric PUMY-HL48NKMU*** | 11.5 | 4 ton | 54,000 BTU | $16.37 | Get quotes | |
| Carrier 37MGHAQ48FA3 | 11.3 | 4 ton | 47,000 BTU | $16.66 | Get quotes | |
| Midea D5CMHAH48FAK | 11.3 | 4 ton | 47,000 BTU | $16.66 | Buy | |
| TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0488HS2P-UL | 11.3 | 4 ton | 38,000 BTU | $16.66 | Get quotes | |
| MDV M6OE31-48HFN10-M1X | 11.3 | 4 ton | 47,000 BTU | $16.66 | Buy | |
| 1HVAC ACIQ-48Z-HH-M6C | 11.0 | 4 ton | 47,000 BTU | $17.12 | Get quotes | |
| AI AIR CONDITIONING A6MO23-48N2-M1H | 11.0 | 4 ton | 48,000 BTU | $17.12 | Get quotes | |
| AI AIR CONDITIONING ASO25-48N2-M2H | 11.0 | 4 ton | 47,500 BTU | $17.12 | Get quotes | |
| Bosch BMS500-AAM048-1CSXHD | 11.0 | 4 ton | 47,000 BTU | $17.12 | Get quotes |
Showing the top 20 by HSPF2. All 715 certified units in this group are filterable in the full database — we rank here rather than dump, because a table nobody can read is not a resource.
Capacity and efficiency are AHRI-certified values; $/MMBtu is computed by us from EIA energy prices — see methodology. Heat at 5°F is the number that decides whether a heat pump keeps up in real cold, and most listings omit it.