30,000 BTU heat pumps

The two numbers that decide a heat pump at this size

What it costs to deliver heat. Across these 659 certified units the computed cost runs $15.69 to $26.15 per MMBtu — the least efficient costs 67% more to run than the most, for the same heat. Over a 40 MMBtu heating season — the moderate-climate default our operating-cost calculator uses, and where you can put your own load in — that is $628 against $1,046, a gap of $418 a year.

Whether it still delivers when it is cold. COP at 5°F runs 1.65 to 3.00 here. A COP of 1.0 is a plain electric heater, so a unit near 1.65 has almost stopped being a heat pump on the coldest night — exactly when the bill is largest. 415 of these (63%) carry the cold-climate designation. This is the number to sort on if your winters bite, and it is not the same ranking as HSPF2.

A 2.5-ton ducted heat pump installs for $8,000 to $15,000, so the premium tier costs about $7,000 more. Against a $418 a year saving that is a 17-year payback — longer than the equipment lasts on energy alone, so justify the upgrade on cold-climate output or comfort rather than on the bill.

$/MMBtu is computed from certified HSPF2 and EIA average electricity prices; the formula is in our methodology. Install ranges are US national typical for a like-for-like ducted swap, compiled 2026-07-16, and exclude ductwork, electrical upgrades and backup heat.